With " Jobs in 2030 ", France Stratégie and Dares (Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques du Ministère du travail et de l'emploi) draw up a numerical panorama of the outlook for occupations by 2030.
This foresight exercise attempts to answer three sets of questions: The authors of "Professions in 2030" rely on a macroeconomic reference scenario derived from sectoral modeling of the economy. Following the health crisis, they also integrate a persistent use of telework.
- How many jobs will be created in the various trades?
- What will be the recruitment needs of companies, taking into account the number of people leaving the company at the end of their careers?
- What potential imbalances can be anticipated if, for each occupation, nothing is done to correct the gap between employers' recruitment needs and the flow of young people leaving initial training?
In total, in the reference scenario, 1 million jobs would be created between 2019 and 2030.
The authors successively address the impact of this scenario (and its various variants) on job creation by sector of activity, by occupation, the dynamics of recruitment needs and potential imbalances.
In terms of net job creation, the authors of "Professions in 2030" anticipate the creation of 115,000 IT engineering jobs in 2030, i.e. +26% compared to 2019.
Strong growth in the digital services sector
According to these projections, the service sectors will account for most of the growth in employment by 2030. " This weight of services reflects the important place in employment of business services on the one hand, and of collective utility services supported by the socialization of education, health and social action expenditures on the other.
Two sectors, outsourced business services (consulting, legal, accounting, scientific and technical activities, research and development, security, labor supply, etc.) and digital services (IT activities, telecommunications, audiovisual) " would be the most job-creating sectors in the projection, with 600,000 additional jobs between 2019 and 2030 in the reference scenario. Dependent on the dynamics of companies that outsource cross-functional support functions to them, these sectors also benefit from the ongoing adaptation of organizations and production processes to technological changes, the energy transition and societal or regulatory changes.
The digitization of other sectors of activity contributes to stabilizing the creation of jobs or even reducing their number.
In the construction sector, " the development of digital design/renovation (or BIM for Building Information Modeling) and the manufacture of certain components in factories (the so-called "dry" process) are reducing the duration of construction sites and making successive interventions on a construction project more efficient. Employment - mostly low-skilled - should therefore grow substantially, but at a slower rate than activity.
"With the rise of e-commerce, the automation of sales processes (checkouts, inventory management, even after-sales service via chatbots) and the concentration of retailers, logistics platforms and central purchasing offices," the retail sector would see its employment stabilize.
Employment is expected to continue to decline in low-tech industries (with low R&D intensity), which face strong competition from emerging countries. "Industrial maintenance - which is more protected from international competition - is likely to face major productivity gains linked to the spread of digital innovations. Computer-assisted predictive maintenance, which can prevent breakdowns and optimize the life of equipment, requires fewer interventions: 30,000 jobs would be lost in these activities in the coming decade.
"Faced with a strong risk of automation of its processes (robots in warehouses, possible development of autonomous cars)", the transport-warehousing sector (logistics) would see its number of jobs decrease in projection " contrary to what we have observed until now".
The banking and insurance sector would record substantial job cuts for the first time in twenty years (-12% from 2019 to 2030). " The digitization of services and their uses (online consultation and subscription) should lead to an acceleration of branch closures. Continued investments in this sector, particularly in the cloud but also in more specific technologies such as artificial intelligence, would be likely to accelerate productivity gains and therefore amplify job losses. They could indeed make the management of banking and insurance services more efficient and automate the production processes of certain services (pricing, trading, account and transaction verification), with the corollary of job cuts at all levels of qualification (customer advisors, back-office, audit, legal services).
In addition, "competition from financial and digital technology players - including the GAFAs for payment methods - and the increase in management costs, even though profitability has been severely affected by low interest rates, should lead to more mergers, resulting in restructuring that is unfavorable to employment.
Job creation that would mainly benefit higher education graduates
Job creation is generally favorable to higher education graduates, who would represent nearly one job out of two in 2030, i.e. 47% of the total, compared to 43% today. " Between 2019 and 2030, 1.8 million jobs held by higher education graduates would be created, while jobs held by the least qualified - those who have not passed the baccalaureate - would decrease by nearly 800,000.
This evolution, accentuated by digital penetration, favors a rise in skills that accompanies the increase in the level of education of the workforce. In the trade sector, for example, between 2019 and 2030, nearly 280,000 jobs held by higher education graduates will replace those held by lesser graduates.
Computer engineers in strong growth
"The 2019-2030 period is expected to be marked by the continuation, at a slower pace, of the decline in employment in agricultural occupations, a recovery in employment in industrial occupations, and continued growth in trade, construction, and service occupations, particularly health and personal services, while civil service administrative jobs and secretarial jobs would continue to decline."
The most qualified professions in business services will experience strong growth. "This is particularly true of IT engineers and research and development staff, who are involved in technological change and have already created a lot of jobs in the last decade.
Their progression results not only from the dynamics of these sectors and the overall performance of the economy " but also from a specific demand for these professionals, in the context of a digital transformation, accentuated by the intensification of telecommuting: collaborative communication, virtualization.
In the legal profession, " digitization should rather be complementary to employment: digital tools reinforce the efficiency of their action (selection of the best legal decisions) more than they replace their activities, where human intervention (through pleading) and interpersonal relationship (with clients) remain decisive".
Employment in industrial occupations is projected to grow by about 45,000 additional positions by 2030. "This growth in employment in industrial occupations would reverse the downward trend of the previous decade (170,000 industrial occupation positions destroyed between 2009 and 2019)."
In administrative and support functions, employment is expected to continue to shrink. " This decline in employment reflects two major trends already at work: the continued development of digital technologies and the rationalization of work organization. Employment for banking and insurance professionals is also trending downward, as constraints on the sector's profitability are leading to accelerated changes related to the digital transition."
Professions that are recruiting more and more higher education graduates
The trend towards a higher level of education for the population and the evolution of tasks are accompanied by an increase in the qualification of jobs in the economy. "This increase in the proportion of higher education graduates affects all sectors and trades. For a given profession, the evolution of employment will therefore result in part from this general increase in the level of education.
The professions that will create the most jobs for higher education graduates in the next decade already recruit a majority of university graduates: "a trend that should increase in the future.
The creation of jobs by higher education graduates would thus be particularly strong among sales and technical sales managers, and administrative, accounting and financial services professions, for both managers and technicians.
IT engineers are expected to welcome 115,000 more higher education graduates by 2030, who would then make up 96% of the workforce in the profession.
What are the recruitment needs by profession?
Among the fifteen occupations with the most vacancies, "Métiers 2030" distinguishes three categories.
The first category includes occupations that create few or no jobs, and the positions to be filled are therefore mainly replacements for people leaving at the end of their careers: this is the case for maintenance workers, teachers, vehicle drivers and salespeople.
The second category includes occupations where job creation would contribute at least a quarter of the positions to be filled: this is true for administrative, accounting and financial managers, sales and technical sales managers, home care workers, nursing assistants, nurses, midwives, skilled handling workers, doctors and maintenance technicians.
The third category is made up of computer engineers and technical engineers and managers in industry. "These occupations are distinguished by their net creation of jobs, which would represent at least half of the positions to be filled. These are relatively young professions that combine a strong dynamism of employment and low departures at the end of their careers (only 46% of positions to be filled).
Tension on the recruitment of computer engineers in 2030
Between 2019 and 2030, 640,000 young people would enter the workforce each year. The recruitment needs by occupation presented above would be met in part by young people entering the workforce. According to the projections of the Ministry of National Education, between 2019 and 2030, 754,000 young people will finish their studies each year.
Among teachers, engineers and technical managers in industry as well as computer engineers, young beginners would fill more than three quarters of the recruitment needs.
The vacancies among IT engineers (like engineers and managers in industry) would not be completely filled by the influx of young beginners.
The authors of "Métiers 2030" draw up a typology of occupations: "The occupations that can be described as attractive combine lower-than-average departures of older workers with a large number of young beginners. These occupations are attractive to young people and professionals already in the workforce, and are expected to create a lot of new jobs, as they have in the past. This is particularly true of IT engineers.
- those that can be described as attractive because young people as well as professionals from other professions turn to them;
- first experience jobs that are a stepping stone to another profession;
- second career jobs ;
- trades that are difficult to attract.
By 2030, " this trade will have more young people entering the workforce than older workers leaving it. Given the potential imbalance projected in 2030, this trade could see its recruitment difficulties increase.