Long relegated to the fringes of public debate, data centers are now emerging as key issues in the ecological transition. Indeed, behind the rise of the cloud, the IoT, artificial intelligence, and everyday digital services, these infrastructures consume massive amounts of electricity, water, and land, posing significant socio-ecological challenges today (on this point, see the interview with Clément Marquet, research fellow at the Center for the Sociology of Innovation (CSI) at Mines Paris: “Moving Beyond the Illusion of an Immaterial Digital World”). In a forward-looking report published in January 2026, the French Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME) provides an unprecedented assessment of the current situation and models the potential evolution of this consumption in France between 2024 and 2060. The study has three main objectives:
- To assess the current electricity consumption of data centers in France;
- Propose a detailed forward-looking model capable of simulating scenarios for changes in data center energy consumption over time, taking into account shifts in French usage patterns and distinguishing between energy consumption by data centers located in France and those located elsewhere in the world but serving French users;
- Model and analyze five future scenarios through 2060: a baseline scenario and four scenarios outlining four possible paths for ecological transition.
The prognosis is grim: without a fundamental shift in public policy and practices, the current trajectory will lead to an energy and climate crisis.
Analysis of this report prepared for ADEME by Lorraine De Montenay, Benoit Petit, Cécile Diguet, and Éric Fourboul (CLIK consortium).
Infrastructure that has become strategic
Over the past decade, data centers have undergone a transformation. They are no longer merely technical facilities serving the digital economy, but strategic infrastructure comparable to electrical or transportation networks. The Economic Simplification Act passed in 2025 illustrates this point: certain data center projects can now be classified as major projects of national interest, facilitating their establishment despite their environmental impacts (on this point, see in particular the op-ed “Against the ‘Simplification Law’: Let’s Slow Down and Dare to Form a United Front,” published by Libération in April 2025, whose first signatories were the Solidaires Union, La Quadrature du Net, researchers from the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), the Center for Internet and Society, Mines Paris, the collective “Le Nuage était sous nos pieds,” the collective TuNubeSecaMiRío, Data for Good, GreenIt, etc.). The development of AI and the current global geopolitical context partly explain this institutional recognition and this dynamic of rapid growth. In 2024, ADEME identified 352 active data centers in France, consuming 8.16 TWh of electricity on their own. When adding the scattered computer rooms in the service sector, total consumption reaches approximately 10 TWh, or nearly 2% of national electricity consumption. A share that still appears modest, but is set to grow significantly.
« If no action is taken, electricity consumption by data centers could increase 3.7-fold in France by 2035, and 4.4-fold if we factor in the electricity imported to meet French demand. »
AI, cloud, blockchain: The End of the Myth of Efficiency
Contrary to the optimistic narratives that have long prevailed, gains in energy efficiency no longer offset the increase in energy consumption. The study highlights several “strong indicators” driving demand upward: the widespread adoption of generative artificial intelligence, the rise of the cloud, the development of blockchain, and the proliferation of machine-to-machine exchanges, independent of direct human use. Added to these dynamics is a key phenomenon: migration to the cloud does not replace existing infrastructure, but rather adds to it (section 1.3.2, p. 35). Far from a transition, this is an accumulation. The result: installed computing power is growing faster than the sector’s ability to reduce its environmental footprint.
The baseline scenario: a crisis in the making
In the so-called “trend” scenario (Part 4, p. 168), which projects current trends to continue without any major shifts, electricity consumption by data centers in France is expected to increase 3.7-fold between 2024 and 2035, reaching nearly 37 TWh per year. When accounting for data centers located abroad but used to support the digital needs of French citizens, total consumption would increase 4.4-fold, exceeding 100 TWh as early as 2035.
In the longer term, the projections become staggering. By 2050, total energy consumption related to digital use in France could reach nearly 250 TWh per year—roughly equivalent to the current electricity output of France’s nuclear power plants. Greenhouse gas emissions would follow the same trajectory, mainly due to “imported” consumption—electricity generated in countries where power generation remains highly carbon-intensive.
Prudence or reckless abandon: five contrasting futures
To prevent this from happening, ADEME is exploring five alternative scenarios, each representing a different societal choice:
- The so-called "trend" scenario discussed earlier.
- The “Frugal Generation” scenario (p. 173) is based on a radical assumption: the reevaluation of certain digital practices, particularly those that consume the most energy or are of the least social benefit. It envisions restrictive policies, including a moratorium on the construction of new data centers. Under this scenario, consumption declines over the long term, and emissions associated with digital usage in France are reduced by 95% by 2050.
- The “Territorial Cooperation” scenario (p. 176) focuses on more nuanced regulation: managing the siting of facilities, prioritizing certain uses, and integrating data centers into local strategies (heat recovery, mitigating pressure on water and land resources). Energy consumption initially rises, then stabilizes before gradually declining.
- In contrast, the “Green Technologies” (p. 179) and “Repair-Oriented Approach” (p. 182) scenarios rely on innovation. They are based on improving energy efficiency, utilizing a low-carbon electricity mix, and developing offset technologies. But the study makes it clear: without energy conservation, these measures are not enough. Consumption continues to grow sharply, and emissions remain high, requiring massive offset mechanisms.
« While the “Green Technologies” and “Repair-Oriented” scenarios also support reducing emissions from other sectors, data center emissions in both scenarios remain very significant and require substantial carbon offsetting. [...] Only a highly proactive policy of resource conservation—one that fundamentally changes our lifestyles—could bring about the shift needed to reduce future data center energy consumption. »
Heat recovery: a real but limited solution
Among the technical solutions analyzed is the recovery of waste heat generated by servers (p. 167). In theory, this potential could account for up to 20 to 25% of the sector’s electricity consumption by 2035. In practice, ADEME highlights the limitations of this approach: economic constraints, a lack of local markets, and technical difficulties. Heat recovery can help improve overall efficiency, but it does not change the scale of the problem.
Digital Technology Caught Up in Its Own Externalities
The report marks a significant shift in how we think about the digital sector. It is no longer viewed as a “separate” sector, whose impacts are indirect or marginal, but rather as a fully-fledged industrial system in its own right, with its own conflicts of use, energy dependencies, and regional impacts.
The conclusion is clear: the digital transition can no longer be considered in isolation from the ecological transition. Without an explicit policy of energy conservation, data centers risk becoming one of the main sources of strain on the French energy system. The future of digital technology is not determined by technology alone; it depends on collective, economic, and political choices, which this report now urges us to embrace.